In thinking about this problem it is useful to use some simple examples.

One of the less talked about discoveries during the saga was the crude oil swap scam. Basically crude oil was being swapped at rates below official rates leaving a margin that just vanishes. Is this under pricing rational behavior?

The two parties involved in this swap deal are the bulk importer and the department at the NNPC that pays the bulk importer. Before the swap takes place the importer knows they can get more swapped crude oil if the crude oil is priced at a lower rate. The department also knows it can get more revenue by under-pricing the swapped crude oil. It has to account for all swapped crude oil but not any side revenues. In essence we have a situation where both parties making the transaction can make themselves better off by allowing some corruption. The bulk importer can get a lot more under priced swapped crude oil if it pays just a fraction of the extra back to the department. The department can get more revenues that it doesn’t have to account for if it under prices the swapped crude oil. Both parties can make themselves better off and will if the benefits are large enough.

Are the benefits large enough? 15m liters of fuel at a cost of say N100 per liter is worth about 90000 barrels of crude oil. If the swapped crude oil is under priced by $1 per barrel and both parties split that 50/50 then the department can make $45000 a day or N2.7bn a year from just under pricing swapped crude by $1. This is at a very generous 15m liters a day fuel imports.

If both parties have the opportunity to make this happen will they take it? Probably. Most Nigerians who face this opportunity will take it as well. It is not really a measure of the lack of morals but of the extra-large benefits that could be made. Corruption, in this case, arises not because the parties are evil but because one of the parties does not suffer any loss from making a bad deal. The department does not lose anything from under pricing crude oil. Sacking and jailing the management of the department will only force the next set of managers to work harder at covering their tracks. Probably in collaboration with offshore Swiss banks.

This kind of set up for corruption is present right through the oil industry where deals are not made by the parties who actually use the product but by some independent 3rd party. A DPR, PPRA, various departments at the NNPC and so on. Solutions for dealing with this will have to go beyond just locking people up and will have to include structural changes. In this particular example breaking up the department into two separate units, one to sell crude oil for cash, and the other to buy imported fuel for cash, will probably reduce the level of corruption. The best case scenario is to not have any departments and let every local distributor or marketer buy fuel from wherever they like.

In the past few months, I have heard all sorts of stories about the unfortunate massacre of Muslim faithfuls in Jos, Plateau state in central Nigeria on their way to the Eid prayer in September 2011 and how their flesh was roasted and eaten by Berom youths. I thought “roasted and eaten” was a metaphor of sorts so I never paid much attention to it. Even when I heard there was a video on Youtube that captured the “roasting and eating”, I never bothered to make a simple Google search to verify the incident because I just refused to believe it had happened. Then I saw the said video posted on Facebook today, I watched every frame of this unbelievably atrocious video clip with absolute horror and revulsion. I am not only incensed and disgusted by the new low some Nigerians have sunken to and how far they would go in their hatred and fighting in the name of religion, but I am very worried and disturbed by the deafening silence of our leaders, especially our Christian leaders and sections of our media over this inhuman, savage, despicable and barbaric act. [Video here]

This other video shows the Berom youths dismembering the roasted body of one of the victims. In some scenes, the decapitated and roasted heads of victims are impaled and bandied about as the youths brazenly take pictures and videos of their barbaric acts. It is very gory and gruesome, viewer discretion is advised.

There are graphic pictures of this massacre and cannibalism HERE.

In the clip above, you can see Berom youths visibly excited, in jubilation and at times cheering as the smoke billows from the roasting flesh of the “enemy”. Their “joy” is clearly conveyed in an audio interview with a BBC reporter Rob Walker who witnessed this cannibalism. You can find an account of the event HERE. At a point as the flesh is being roasted, someone says in Hausa language “…ni zuciyan na ke so…” meaning: “I want the heart”, while another person goes further to ask “…ka sa gishiri?” meaning: “…did you put some salt”? The large crowd’s visible complicity and excitement as they eagerly anticipate their cannibalistic feast marks a descent in our collective sense of humanity in Nigeria. What I find most ironic is that these butchers and party are communicating in Hausa language, the language of their slain “enemy” or rather, their “meal” and not their own native berom language. The presence of a police vehicle in the area where the “feasting” and cannibalism on slaughtered Muslims is taking place raises questions. The police should be protecting people, maintaining law and order and stopping any criminal activity from taking place, shouldn’t they? Of course as this video shows, this is not the case.

By far, the most worrying aspect is the deafening and resounding silence from the media and religious leaders considering this was an incident that occurred in late August while the video was posted September 2011. Even when this premeditated massacre of Muslims happened, very scant coverage was given by the Nigerian media which have shown more often than not to be very biased when it comes to reportage on sectarian crisis. There have been complaints on the media hurrying to use screaming (and sometimes exaggerated) headlines of Muslims killing Christians but hardly giving adequate or fair coverage when Muslims are the victims such as the virtual lack of coverage of the planned and premeditated massacre of hundreds of Muslims in Zonkwa, Southern Kaduna during the 2011 post elections violence by most media agencies. It appears the Nigerian media have decided there is only one type of victim, the noble Christian who is usually ambushed whilst worshipping in Church or in the dead of the night by a gang of marauding, sword-toting, gun-wielding bearded Muslims in a near murderous trance, chanting “Allahu Akbar”. Anything that goes contrary to or falls outside the purview of this dominant narrative is rejected and would never be entertained, published or broadcast. As a result, such crimes against hundreds of Muslims go underreported or even unreported.

The silence of religious leaders, especially our very vocal President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor on this matter is heart breaking. This is especially because the CAN president is one who is never reluctant to vociferously bare his mind on burning national issues, whether declaring his support for the removal of fuel subsidy, declaring that Nigeria is on the brink of religious war or asking Christian faithful to protect themselves using “whatever means”. As Oritsejafor seems to have lost his voice on this occasion, one wonders whether he hasn’t heard of this barbaric act by people claiming to be acting on behalf of Christianity, or perhaps he hasn’t watched the clip? I would give Oritsejafor and other Christian leaders the benefit of doubt that perhaps they have not heard of this incident. In that case, I hope Christian leaders would not hesitate in coming out to condemn this savage act in its entirety for it certainly does not represent the image or behaviour of majority of Christians. And this is not only restricted to Christian leaders as some of our intellectual elite such as Professor Wole Soyinka or former aviation minister Femi Fani Kayode who haven’t wasted time in writing volumes on Boko Haram — sometimes using it interchangeably with Islam as if Boko Haram represents Muslims — have kept silent over this despicable act.

This incident clearly marks a new low in our collective sense of humanity as Nigerians and Africans. For heaven’s sake, we are in the 21^st century, where our peers and counterparts in Brazil, China, India and Malaysia are becoming more productive, reducing poverty, broadening their perspectives and even competing with developed countries in economic productivity whilst we are too busy killing each other, demonizing each other, narrowing our perspectives and eating our “enemies’ ” flesh in the name of religion which we have perverted and twisted. The unfair coverage given to such needless killings by our sectional media and some of our religious leaders because some victims or events do not fit the dominant narrative that has been created for such pose the greatest danger to our peaceful coexistence. We seem to forget that no life is more precious than the other and that every human life wasted is a loss to all. But with the way things are going in Nigeria, I am reminded of the Orwellian case of “all animals are equal but some are more equal than others”. How long can we continue like this and how long will we continue plunging further into this abyss?

—–

Editorial: The full post, with pictures and embedded videos, is published here.

President Goodluck Jonathan

Friday, 13 January, 2012, the Nigeria Police makes a great breakthrough in its quest to unravel the mystery behind the series of bombings that have sent a lot of innocent Nigerians to an early grave. A key suspect behind the tragic Christmas day bomb blast in Madalla, Niger State is arrested in Abuja. The interesting part of the arrest is that he is arrested in the Borno’s State Governor’s lodge in Abuja in the company of an unidentified friend and serving Air force officer said to be giving him protection. The name of the suspect is Kabir Sokoto, said to also hail from Borno State, known to be the hotbed of Boko Haram. With this arrest, it looks like a major breakthrough in the fight against Boko Haram has been made.

The suspect is immediately taken into custody. He is transferred to the police station for interrogation. Those who are familiar with the Nigerian police understand the full meaning of the word interrogation in a Nigerian police cell. The chances of surviving it without physical body injuries are narrow. Also the chances of you not confessing to known and unknown sins are also narrow.

What the officers that arrested Kabir Sokoto and detained him for interrogation did not know was that his arrest has gotten some high powers uncomfortable. Kabir Sokoto was not to be subjected to the interrogation tactics of the Nigerian police by all means. An Emir whose sons are said to be close friends to Kabir Sokoto and who is said to wield a lot of influence with top political figures was making the required calls. Pressure was mounting on the Nigeria police force to let their catch walk free. Unfortunately, the arrest of the top Boko Haram suspect had already broken out in the media. So, letting Kabir Sokoto walk free would not be an easy task. There had to be a good plan to make that happen.

Monday Morning three days after the arrest of Kabir Sokoto, Nigeria’s most important suspect in unravelling the Boko Haram menace, Commissioner of Police Zakari Biu, who also incidentally hails from Borno State, appears at the police station where Kabir Sokoto, who also hails from Borno state, is being kept and ask that he be handed over to him for special interrogation. He claims he has special instructions to search the suspect’s house in Abaji part of Abuja where the suspect lives.

For those who do not know Zakari Biu, a little background on him will provide some insight. His profile reads like fiction. Biu is a man who has experienced the two faces of terrorism. He is said to have lost a Son to the Independence Bomb blasts in Abuja. His Son was a staff with Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

However, Biu also has been linked with planting two different bomb blasts in the past as late Sani Abacha’s anti-terrorism chief. Two high profile deaths linked to Biu are the deaths of Bagauda Kaltho, a journalist working for TheNEWS magazine, and Dr. Sola Omatsola, former Chief Security Officer of Murtala Muhammed International Airport. Both of them died through bomb blasts which Biu claimed they were trying to plant though it is believed that Biu himself may have had a hand in the planting of the bombs that killed both men because of their stand against the Abacha regime.

Biu was sacked from the Nigeria Police after the terrorism of the Abacha days came to an end with the sudden death of Abacha. However, he got a reprieve after his former classmate Ringim was made the inspector general of police. He was reinstated by the Police Service Commission and promoted to the position of commissioner of police in charge of CID zone 7 of the Nigeria police.

So Monday morning, Zakari Biu walks into the Abaji local police station and walks away with Kabir Sokoto on the pretext that he was going to search the suspect’s house. Kabir Sokoto is handed over to four armed police officers to take him to his house for a search. Kabir Sokoto is assumingly in hand cuffs on his hands and feet, the usual drill when Nigeria police is taking a suspect out of the station.

At Abaji, a mob comes out from nowhere taking the police men by surprise and asking that Kabir Sokoto is handed over to them. Surprisingly, the four armed police men, without firing single shot hands over Kabir Sokoto to the mob. It is not clear if the mob insisted that they also remove the handcuffs on Kabir Sokoto’s legs and hands before taking him away. But miraculously, a suspect that was supposed to be in handcuffs on both his legs and hands is able to walk away. The Nigerian police with a reputation to shoot at unarmed civilians without provocation suddenly ran out of the will to shoot when it came to preventing Nigeria’s most dangerous suspect from escaping.

But then Zakir’s Sokoto’s miraculous escape seems to have suddenly stirred the hornets’ nest. In focus suddenly was Biu, who very few people knew has been reinstated into the police and Ringim’s reputation and job suddenly was placed on the line as a fall out of Kabir Sokoto’s escape and also his apparent links with Biu, whose reputation raises a lot of questions. The Presidency queries the Inspector General of Police mandating him to fish out Kabir Sokoto. The inspector general police suddenly announce a N50 million reward for the arrest of Kabir Sokoto. Rumour circulate that he has been arrested. It is denied and then suddenly bombs starts exploding in Kano State, the home state of the inspector general of police.

This time it is not Christians that are under attack. The police are the ones under attack with unconfirmed reports that the IG’s own house was also attacked. The casualty figures are the highest since the first Boko Haram attacks began in Borno State with reports now estimating that between 120 to 180 people may have lost their lives in the Kano bomb blasts.

The Kano attack by Boko Haram is the first major attacks carried out by Boko Haram in Kano State and it is the biggest outside Borno State. It is also the biggest attacks on the Nigerian police since Boko Haram claimed the attacks on the Nigeria Police Head office in Abuja. It comes a few days after the miraculous escape of a major Boko Haram suspect. It also comes after what seems like a clear link is being established between Boko Haram and the security forces and a State. It looks like the desperate last stand before a fall. This is the time the uncompromised part of the Nigeria security agencies need to dig deep and move very fast on the obvious leads that they have currently.

The Kabir Sokoto escape story has some loose ends the Nigeria security forces are yet to answer. He was arrested in the company of two men. What happened to the two men? Were they allowed to walk free or are they still in police custody? Was Kabir Sokoto allowed to escape to enable him carry out the Kano Bombings? I would not be surprised if the story comes out tomorrow that he was the suicide bomber that carried out the attacks in Kano? In that case, he is dead and in no position the implicate anyone.

Borno State government has come out with several stories trying to deny its connection with Kabir Sokoto. The stories all sound lame. Everyone knows that you do not get access to the governor’s lodge in Abuja unless you have connections in government house. Who are the contact men of Kabir Sokoto and his friends in Borno State government house?

Borno State is known to the hot bed of Boko Haram. Boko Haram also originated from Borno State. Too many links point to a close association between Boko Haram and political functionaries from Borno State that it is high time the Federal Government and intelligence agencies placed a laser focused eye on the state. The politicians sponsoring Boko Haram from the state have to start feeling uncomfortable. Indications are that if Boko Haram has to be stopped, it has to be stopped in Borno State. The Boko Haram genie left the bottle in the State; it has to be corked in Borno State.

“SubhanAllah! What! I think another bomb just got detonated in my area. It shook the living daylight out of my house which is close to police headquarters, Bompai. From my room I can hear fierceful gun battle.” Friday 20th January, 5.13pm local time

“Another bomb just went off, shaking the very foundation of our house. Now I see walls cracking and ceiling loosing grip. Gun fight is getting intense.” Friday 20th January 5.40pm local time

“Rains of bullets and tornado of explosions…! We’re in a war zone! I’ve never experienced anything close.” Friday 20th January, 6.09pm local time

These were some of the frantic messages posted on Facebook Aisha Mohammed (not real name) on Friday evening in the city of Kano Nigeria as the Islamist insurgency group Boko Haram unleashed a series of bomb attacks in one evening and engaged in fierce gun battle with security forces. The deadly onslaught on Kano city claimed over 200 lives with estimates by medical personnel placing the figure at a much higher lever. While this is just one of numerous other onslaughts by Boko Haram in recent times, it is so far its most vicious, deadliest and most sophisticated yet. The numerous attacks it has unleashed in the last few months, each one more deadly and daring than the previous have made it quite difficult to keep track. It would seem examining the latest spate of attacks, the surrounding circumstances  and making comparisons with previous ones to find out the missing pieces of the puzzle would be in order, just like a literature review of sorts to find out what key points we are missing.

SIZE AND SCALE OF ATTACKS

On this occasion, one discernible difference is the size, scale and magnitude of the attacks. Over 20 bombs were reported to have gone off in different locations in Kano city, which several police stations, the Immigration headquarters, the Department of the State Security Service (SSS) and other government buildings. As if the deadly bomb blasts were not enough, the attackers are reported to have engaged in fierce gun battle with police officers especially at the SSS headquarters and at  the Police headquarters Bompai. The blasts were reported by witnesses and many living in the vicinity of the targeted building to have been heard within a radius of up to two kilometres. Such buildings in the vicinity of the attacks, were said to have shattered, ceilings of houses caved in, walls cracked. The level of sophistication, precision and co-ordination is incredible as well as hair-raising. Attacking Kano, the commercial and cultural heart of the North surely struck a nerve. If the aim was to strike fear, terror and indelible emotional and psychological scarring, then mission fait accompli.

BIG SPONSORS AND BIG FINANCIERS

It is also clear that substantial resources were invested in carrying out these attacks. Not only was this in terms of the level of sophistication, planning and coordination in the onslaught on major security installations in the city, but also in terms of the calibre of army-grade weapons and explosives used. Eye witnesses reported the use of rocket-propelled launchers by the attackers. The way Boko Haram was able to stake out its targets – security installations to be precise – plan and strategically place explosives begs the question as to how come there was no prior intelligence or inkling that alerted anyone of such plans, least of all the security agencies.

The explosives used were obviously not the locally-made, home-made Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) used by the group in its previous campaigns. These bombs whose impacts were heard and felt within a reported 2km radius are neither cheap nor easy to come by. When all these are considered, it raises the question of whether Boko Haram as we know it (what little is known of it anyways) an isolated group that abhors western education and all trappings of modernity can on its own afford such expensive gadgets and logistics. What comes to mind is that there are big financiers and sponsors behind this group – certainly people with enormous resources, clout, influence and a bloody vendetta. President Goodluck Jonathan himself said this much when he confirmed what many have long suspected: that the group’s sympathisers have infiltrated his government. If so the key question remains, who are they and what do they intend to achieve with this bloody campaign?

BEYOND SECURITY AND RELIGION, A POLITICAL MATTER:

In light of all this information, it is clear that the Boko Haram sect and its activities have clearly gone beyond being a mere security challenge by a group which aims to “impose the adherence to strict shariah law”. This is clearly a deeply political problem which requires appropriate political solutions. This perhaps explains why the security measures adopted so far to contain the insurgency have proven futile: attempts at negotiation have been blatantly rejected by the group’s members; the deployment of a Joint Military Task Force to Borno state, the group’s stronghold, has simply resulted in arbitrary killings and other human rights violations of the civilian population and the recent state of emergency declared in states regarded as Boko Haram strong hold have similarly failed as it neither stopped random attacks in Maiduguri and Bauchi nor did it prevent the Kano blasts from occurring. All the group’s top members who have been arrested have either been murdered or have escaped in mysterious circumstances.

Consequently, the recent appeal by the National Security Adviser (NSA) General Andrew Azazi, encapsulated in his article in the Washington Times for US assistance in tackling Boko Haram has been viewed with scepticism. This is because there is only so much the most efficient police organizations and intelligence agencies in the world can do in a terrain where little information and little intelligence has been gathered. M15 or CIA can do little in an environment they are not familiar with or where they will stick out like sore thumbs.

After conducting this literature review of sorts, the underlying fact here is that there are deep underlying political issues that need to be resolved. The top echelon of the government clearly has sufficient information to work with, apprehend these sponsors/sympathisers and deal with them accordingly. Whether this means negotiating and sorting out the deep political problems which are clearly bedevilling Nigeria, or apprehending and prosecuting them, ordinary Nigerians simply want an end to the carnage, mayhem and bloodshed lest the looming anarchy descends and prevails.

When a man is unable to allow his utterances be controlled by his cranial matter we assume the person is drunk because alcohol has a way of loosening the tongue. If there is no sign that the person is inebriated we begin to question the mental capacity of the person and words like stupid, dolt, idiot or cretin come to mind.

However, if such a person falls into neither category because we are aware of the person’s intellect and his bearing is such that alcohol and stupidity are excluded, you are left to wonder and ponder at what the issue might be.

Running Nigeria is neither for the inebriated nor the stupid, it is a job that calls on all faculties; the exhibited ones need to be alert, sharp and commanding of the authority and bearing expected of such who dare to lead.

Taking stock

The time has come and the time is now that we can no more acquiesce to low expectations and levels of achievement that are redolent of indolence rather than hardworking effective and efficient leadership.

In our 6^th decade of independence, we have no time for people learning on the job, lacking aims, plans, mission or a vision as to where they intend to take Nigeria in the short term and at the end of their term in office.

Our democratic experiment is now close to concluding its 13^th year and what we have seen more of is profligacy, prodigality, waste, corruption and a lack of accountability. Billions of dollars have been ploughed into infrastructure as power, roads, transport, rail, health and education but there has been very little to show for those investments.

Rather our legislators have growth fat on the largesse of the country earning humongous sums that will make the eyes of real creators of jobs and masters of industry water – to think from anecdotal evidence that our federal legislators earn more than presidents or leaders of more advanced economies and then to see a paltry work rate that is self-serving rather than in the service of the people is unconscionable, dishonest, corrupt and unsustainable.

Things are NOT changing

However, the biggest question remains what plans do they all have for the progress of Nigeria and when will they stop promising and start delivering?

After the 2 weeks of Occupy Nigeria and the strikes that ended yesterday, it appears the reluctant government in perpetual inertia was forced to be responsive albeit unilateral in all their decision-making dispensing of the rule of law for expediency and convenience that the legislature is found having to exert itself as the usually careless overseer of executive excess.

And careless they have been because they have still not addressed the criminally fraudulent matter of noticing the executive budgeted N250bn for fuel subsidies in 2011 and actually had spent N1.3trn by September and they are asking for more to cover the whole of 2011.

It still beggars belief that there are no checks and moderating influences over the executive to ensure they do not overspend without recourse to the legislature and if they do, there are no sanctions and repudiations to be made to all responsible with the possibility of criminal prosecution.

It is incredible that any organ of government can overspend by 500% and the other organs of government abdicate their responsibility with impunity; it indicates how corruption has eaten into the fabric of Nigerian governance that it is impossible for it to reform without some radical act of the people or God forbid some other intervention that forcibly resets this untenable and flagrant abuse of democratic processes.

We are caught as I once said before in the grip of an unconscionable kakistocracy – it is the government by the worse people ever selected to be in leadership.

Doing the worst of the least

Just before words could be taken out of our mouths, the president when addressing certain youths who in their excellence might abdicate their initiative and innate abilities for subservience to the government we have today, he said, “If we cannot build good roads for our children; if we cannot leave hospitals for them, then one thing we must not leave for them is debt, for them to come and pay.”[1]

I have been trying to get my head round what the president really meant by this statement because try as I might, I have found it impossible to make anything positive of it.

Then to think someone thought this statement was so positively profound that is was the quote on the FrontPage advertisement of BusinessDay just shows how low our expectations of this government have precipitously fallen that the government is not even exerting itself to anything at all.

Nigeria needs roads and she needs hospitals, those will contribute to the lifeblood of our economy and wellbeing. Even theoretical economists who always tend to leave out the serious human dimension in their modelling know that road infrastructure and healthcare are critical elements of development that if we end up in debt facilitating such the long term economic benefits will eventually pay off the debts.

A race to ruin

What I read here is a man that we have in elected office as president who has no vision for the country, he is as laidback as a rug with not particular goals apart from the default of not leaving the debts to our children whilst in the 5 years that he has been running mate either as vice-president or president he has presided over such an expansion of government to no end but for the aggrandisement of their debauched lifestyles of untold opulence leaving nothing for the people.

It is a race to ruin that does not address the real problems that affect the country be it corruption, profligacy or the security deficit that allows a high-level terrorist suspect to escape from custody at a time when the country is in a heightened state of security.

Occupy their lives

This, my friends can no more continue, we have another 40 months of this regime and something must give, it cannot be the people giving in to business as usual anymore, we need to make these people responsible, accountable and earning each kobo of their keep.

Our Occupy Nigeria movement needs to spearhead a series of tenacious occupations, we must occupy their minds, occupy their thoughts, occupy their time, occupy their space, occupy their lives, audit their time, audit their spend, audit their lives, micro-manage all their activities and call each and every one who takes money from the Nigerian coffers to account.

Politics in Nigeria must stop being a cushy job of high-living in ostentatious consumption to feed insatiable hedonistic appetites, these people should be too busy to find time for such excess and if they cannot stand the heat, they should resign.

Occupy and force change for the better

If a politician is not ready to put their best forward and make Nigeria the main priority of their lives with everything Nigeria being front and centre of their focus, it is time for them to retire with no benefits, they should take to life like all other Nigerians do. Enough of this nonsense, enough of the rottenness that is eating this country to the core and enough of the clueless leadership that needs to be given a good boot kick in the backside to start performing.

Occupy Nigeria for the change we deserve and we either force these people to do it or force them out but by God, we will not wait until 2015 for this indolence to become so ingrained that the future would have been eternally mortgaged to this looming debacle and apology of a state of affairs.

Occupy! The time is now.

Source

[1] Jonathan blames politicians for Nigeria’s woes | Premium Times Nigeria

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Want to help Africa? Do business here was the TED rallying cry by former World Bank MD now Nigeria Finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. But, who is going to do business with you if you appeared clueless in the face of the future? Spearheading the controversial plan to scrap fuel subsidies was a mistake as anger sparked unrest forcing banks, petrol stations, manufacturing companies and Nigerian airports to close. President Goodluck Jonathan has gone on national TV to defend the fuel cuts. But words like “I have no intention to inflict pains on Nigerians” and “We must act in the public interest, no matter how tough, for the pains of today cannot be compared to the benefits of tomorrow” missed the point.

Petrol prices in Nigeria are currently very low by international standards at about $0.40 per litre. Many Nigerians regard cheap fuel as the only benefit they get from the nation’s oil wealth. There are compelling arguments for the removal of fuel subsidy, however, the government could have planned it better. The town hall meeting was a disaster of jargon and platitudes. The announcement to remove fuel subsidy was made in a statement from regulators, which said the changes would begin immediately. Petrol prices more than doubled overnight in response and angry street protests followed.

This non-progressive and socially unjust tax has led to chaos in every sector. It was poorly planned and executed hence the angry protests that are threatening other areas like security as we learn that sympathisers of the Islamist Boko Haram group are in government and security agencies. “Downside scenarios included: Nigeria as a failed state, dragging down a large part of the West African region.” Is the game over for Nigeria as people sit at home while their elected representatives take home pay is more than that of US President Obama?

I do not think so. All is not lost in Nigeria, those incompetent lot in the Nigerian government has to do the difficult task of leadership. A U-turn. Admit error and blame God. Rather than tax poor Nigerians. Now, how about taxing those that benefit from Nigeria? A one-off $100Billion 2012 pollution and corruption tax on all multi-nationals will deliver on the economic benefits as we re-plan the removal of petroleum subsidy. Shell, Chevron, P&G, PwC and others have turned around Trillions in US dollars out of Nigeria. Is it wrong to now ask them to share in the benefits of tomorrow?

President Goodluck Jonathan

I have been one of those in favour of the removal of fuel subsidies. However for most Nigerians the problem is not that they don’t understand the logic of spending wisely. The problem is they don’t trust the government to do so. The government has used these tricks in the past and there really is no reason to believe they are serious about investing now. As popular as the protests are, and I support them, the only tangible plan I’ve seen involves returning to N65 per liter, reducing the  cost of governance, plugging holes in oil sector and provide power. The N65 is popular however the rest are all pretty vague. Almost as vague as the government SURE plan.

I have therefore decided to try to contribute by coming up with a plan that doesn’t require people trusting the government. This is a plan to replace the governments proposed subsidy reinvestment and empowerment program. It is based on three principles: ringfencing the savings from the subsidy removal; enforcing pre agreed conditions on projects with the federal, state and local government; and providing a tool for ordinary Nigerians to monitors projects. This plan is not supposed to replace other demands by protesters. Demands such as reducing the allowances of members of the national assembly.

This plan is still in the early stages of development and all suggestions are welcome. Please email suggestions to me at thesubsidyplan@gmail.com.

ThePlan(Download)

Click image for source

Madam Efunroye Tinubu was among the most prominent and powerful Yoruba women in pre-colonial Nigeria (early to mid 19th century). Other renowned Yoruba women from that period were Iyalode Efunsetan Aniwura and Madam Omosa, both of whom deserve posts of their own.

Madam Tinubu was an Egba woman born to a trading family in Abeokuta (also known as Egbaland). After completing an apprenticeship, she headed to Badagry, Lagos where she started trading in tobacco and salt. She later expanded her trade to include slaves who she sold to European slave traders. As a shrewd businesswoman, Madam Tinubu became the most important middleman in trade between Europeans and the Yorubaland interior by creating large trading networks. Madam Tinubu’s wealth and connections led her to meddle in politics.

With her trade and wealth, she was able to lend support to military efforts, which in turn made her more powerful. Although she was not from Lagos, she began taking interest in Lagos politics. In 1846, King Akintoye of Lagos faced exile and sought refuge in Badagry with Madam Tinubu. Being the badass that she was, Madam Tinubu ignited and supported a movement to return King Akintoye to regain the throne he had lost, she was successful.

In 1851, after regaining his throne King Akintoye invited Madam Tinubu to Lagos where she further expanded her business and political activities. Due to her influence in Akintoye’s court, rumours abounded that Madam Tinubu was the real power behind the throne. Madam Tinubu’s influence was such that when Prince Dosunmu succeeded King Akintoye, she continued to hold a space in Lagos politics.

Today Madam Tinubu is called a patriot by some, I am not too comfortable with that term because technically there was no ‘Nigeria’ when she was alive. However, Madam Tinubu did take a stance against the British in their efforts to further flex their colonial muscles into Yorubaland. In 1855, she spearheaded a campaign against Brazilian and Sierra Leonean immigrants in Lagos who she felt were actively trying to oppose the King and did not respect local customs. Apparently, her actions against these immigrants worried the British (who had been keeping an eye on her since she helped King Akintoye regain this throne). By supporting the local king and insisting that foreign residents respect local customs, Madam Tinubu’s activities were getting in the way of British colonial and mission policies. In 1856, colonial authorities in Lagos deported her from Lagos to her home town, Abeokuta in 1856.

I believe it was in Abeokuta that Madam Tinubu developed and adopted a staunchly anti-British stance. She eventually stopped selling slaves to the Europeans, it seems, after she learnt of the ‘evils of transatlantic slavery’, that is, the differences between the treatment of domestic slaves and those sold to the Europeans. Apparently she fought European slave traders to liberate slaves in Lagos and thereabouts however there is no mention if Madam Tinubu liberated the slaves she owned when she became anti-imperialist.

In Abeokuta, she traded gunpowder, bullets and other firearms (she also traded in palm oil and food produced on her massive plantations). She concerned herself with the Abeokuta-Dahomey wars that were taking place at that time, and through doing so became involved in Egba politics. Madam Tinubu would make loans to the army and supply food and arms during wartime. She was also in charge of the market place in times of peace. She contributed to defending Egbaland during attempts at Dahomean invasion in 1863 after which she was bestowed the title of ‘Iyalode’ in 1864 officially placing her in a position of power. She was the second woman to receive this title.

She died in 1887, at the height of her popularity.

Today, Madam Tinubu has several monuments dedicated to her, in Abeokuta, one stands ‘in the town square named after her Ita Iyalode.

There seem to be conflicting dates on when exactly a colonial government was established in Nigeria (and dare I say other parts of Africa as well). I have noticed that a lot of people place colonial governments actually earlier than they were. This supports the idea that from the beginning African and Europeans economic and political relations were unequal. The academic essay I read places Madam Tinubu as a pre-colonial Yoruba heroine who has a lot of information on her because her alliances and political activities, including her anti-colonial stance worried the British.

At this point, I am about to discuss the main reason I’m writing this post. Recently there was a debate on Facebook with several Nigerians saying that we shouldn’t be celebrating Madam Tinubu because of her trade in slaves. Some people argued that Madam Tinubu could not be patriotic if she was selling slaves to Europeans. Someone went as far as comparing her to Hitler. From the start, the entire discussion unsettled me.

You see, a long time ago I came across Madam Tinubu while searching on Yoruba women in history, but I only learnt of her as a trader in slaves and firearms. At that time, I decided to ignore her due to her part in the transatlantic slave trade. The source I read only described Madam Tinubu as a powerful Yoruba woman who sold slaves and firearms, there was no mention of her ventures in politics and the fact that those British colonials were, truth be told, scared of her.

I am not a fan of selective information. With people arguing that we should ignore Madam Tinubu’s anti-colonial efforts, I feel that now or in the future people may only know her as a slave-trading woman. It has taken me months, literally to articulate my thoughts and opinions on Madam Tinubu and the rejection of her legacy by some Nigerians. I only hope I express my ideas clearly in this post.

Firstly, how many renowned women from Yoruba history exist in the minds of Yoruba and Nigerian people today? Apparently there are only THREE of them, as I mentioned above they are Iyalode Efunsetan Aniwura, Madam Omosa and Madam Tinubu. Is there readily available information on these women? Well no, not exactly I am yet to come across substantial information on Iyalode Efunsetan and Madam Omosa. It seems the only reason we know so much about Madam Tinubu is because the British colonialist kept dossiers on her. While searching for information on Iyalode Efunsetan, the only thing I kept coming across was how her name had been maligned by someone, she had been portrayed as a ‘bad’ woman in some way. Now, people are debating whether Madam Tinubu should be acknowledged. Is it bizarre that it looks to me like this kind of treatment is specially reserved for women in Nigerian history?

Would we be debating whether or not Madam Tinubu should be acknowledged as a powerful person in Nigerian history if she were male? For a while after following the debate, I was totally confused and feeling all sorts of emotions! I started looking at other personalities in ‘pop history’, that is the sanctioned popularised history, and compiling a list of all the now morally wrong things they did in their time. For example, why is it that no one is debating whether the Dahomey empire should be studied, admired, praised the empire’s rise and decline is directly linked to the transatlantic slave trade? Or should I cease appreciating the Dahomean Amazons because of this knowledge? Would that be the ‘right’ thing to do? Nzingha of Ndongo and Matamba reportedly killed her subjects at will and kept a harem of male concubines (slaves?) yet today we appreciate her efforts against the colonising efforts of the Portuguese. The interesting thing I found is that the a lot of those men and women who fought against European colonisation of Africa had at some point or the other sold slaves to Western buyers. This apparently includes my favourite history subject from secondary school, Samori Toure.

According to a friend of mine, I should ignore the entire debate around whether Madam Tinubu was a ‘patriot’ or not, an anti-imperialist or not, because every single important West African from that period of time had a part in the slave trade. Surprisingly, Wole Soyinka has an essay on ‘Africa’s role in the transatlantic slave trade’ in which he mentions this, that is the power some Africans in that period got from trading slaves. I do not entirely agree with his essay though, anyone who says Africans sold ‘our own people’ will automatically get a side eye from me.

What I am getting at is this, is it impossible for Madam Tinubu’s efforts against the British Colonial government to be celebrated despite her dealings in the transatlantic slave trade? I am not one for redemption stories to be honest but the fact that she became an abolitionist (it is not specified whether she was dedicated to liberating slaves headed towards Europe and America or the domestic slaves she owned…this opens another can of worms). I personally don’t think we should be having the debate at all.

What I read
Tinubu Square, Central Lagos. MADAM EFUNROYE TINUBU
Denzer LaRay (1994), ‘Yoruba Women: A Historiographical Study’, The International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 1-39

Looking back, I can attribute a lot of what I am now to simple lessons I learnt from back when I lived on Sesame Street. To underscore this, check out these videos from the series.

Counting To Four

I was too old for this video at the time, but that didn’t stop me from totally loving it. It’s amazing, the talent and devotion that the producers of these programmes bring to teaching the simplest things.

Raise Your Hand

Though mostly a lesson in classroom decorum, this song taught me to be inquisitive and never be afraid of asking questions in class or anywhere at all. This usually earned me odd looks from classmates who dubbed me oversabi or ‘ITK’ (I Too Know), but I was always the better for it. Okay, maybe I extended the lesson a bit

Jack Black Defines Octagon

Who would believe how easy it is to explain what an octogan is to a kid? See how in this short but powerful video.

Rectangle

Watch the funny two headed monster go beyond shape recognition into abstract logic by fooling around with what they think is a rectangle…

Will.I.Am – What I Am

Obviously recent this one, it’s starring Black Eyed Peas’ Will.I.Am. Reaching children via popular pop culture icons is genius strategy, again showing the lengths the programme producers are willing to go to inspire children.

Naija To Banks…[Static]…Come In Banks…

In the real world however, I thoroughly hated going to school where we had to chant the times tables in an annoying monotone, and where the teacher decided to score me 9 over 10 in verbal reasoning because I had decided to spell ‘colour’ as ‘color’. Tell me, being in primary two or so at the time, how was I supposed to know the difference between American and British english?

It’s a good thing I had Sesame Street and similar children’s programming to learn from, watching those shows made up for my relatively unremarkable formal education. If the methods employed by schools in Nigeria are even half as intuitive as the ones in these videos, we wouldn’t be recording these dismal SSCE results. I remember the last (public) secondary school I attended (I attended four in all), I was killing their science students at biology, and without reading too. Between a few years worth of Magic School Bus episodes and a backward curriculum, I was able to give them a proper trouncing. Terrible. I’ll leave the rant about how unscientific our approach to education in Nigeria is for another post. But let me state the obvious. As far as educating the younger generation is concerned, we have a long way to go.

Not everyone gets the chance to live on Sesame Street. Recently I came across two boys who saw Superman on my laptop for the first time in their lives. This in my opinion is a breach of a fundamental human right. The right to know Superman. And sadly this is the case for a disproportionately large number of children who have no access to quality TV programming. I was lucky to have been influenced by these mediums. I hope that sometime very soon, in concert with other interested actors, I can afford others the same opportunity.

*NEPA – National Electric Power Authority

Public residential buildings are seen in Po Lam, one of the "satellite towns" in Hong Kong, on September 14, 2011. This southern Chinese city is described as a concrete forest, famous for the number of high-rise commercial and residential towers. About 25 percent of the world's tallest 100 residential buildings stand in the territory. (Reuters/Bobby Yip)

“Our world is one of terrible contradictions… Plenty of food but one billion people go hungry. Lavish lifestyles for a few, but poverty for too many others.”

-          UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon 31^st Oct 2011

Just two minutes before midnight on the 31^st of October 2011, in the crowded Jose Fabella Memorial Hospital in Manila Philippines, the tiny Danica May Camacho was born. A few thousand kilometres away in Mall village Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, Baby Nargis was born at 07:25 local time (01:55GMT). Both babies along with several others around the world have been identified as seven billionth babies, marking the 7 billion milestone of the world’s population identified by the United Nations. This staggering and somewhat fascinating massive surge in global population has brought to the fore many issues primarily bordering on the consequences of the growing population on global resources and its impact on the environment. The question is that is this really a problem and does this really signal a population crisis? If so will the proposed measures actually address this problem?

Global population has been on a dramatic and rapid increase in the last two centuries. Right from the late 18^th century when the renowned British economist and clergyman, Reverend Thomas Malthus famously remarked that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man”, or in other words, that the geometric increase in global population would far outstrip the arithmetic increase in food production, the world’s population  reached 1 billion in 1804,  hit 2 billion in 1927 after 123 years, then the pace accelerated to 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion in 1998  and now 7 billion in 2011 and counting. According to UN forecasts, the world would have more than 10 billion people by 2083. While the bulk of this population increase is in developing countries, half of this population it is projected will come from Sub-Saharan Africa which already has the highest birth-rates and the deepest poverty in countries such as Niger, Burundi, Mali, Nigeria. As the driver of this population increase is fertility, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and renowned development economist states that in such countries, families have 6-8 children on average while simultaneously in the developed world, fertility rates have reduced.

As global population increases, the world is not only becoming overcrowded according to some demographers, environmentalists and development economists, but also that finite and exhaustible global resources such as fossil fuels, soil fertility, forests, fisheries and ground water are being rapidly depleted. Thus there has been a corresponding increase in food scarcity, droughts, water shortages, competition for viable energy sources and environmental damage due to increased use of fossil fuels, pollution and deforestation.  Such experts state that food and most especially water shortages if not checked, could fuel political destabilization in developing countries. Nowhere is this more evident than in the recent and still on going drought and famine in the horn of Africa which has affected over 11 million people in Somalia, parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda, regarded by the UNHCR as the worst humanitarian crisis of the region in 60 years. The growing phenomenon of “land grabbing” where companies in countries like Saudi Arabia, China and the UK acquire large hectares of land in places such as Ethiopia, Angola, Ghana, Madagascar, Ukraine and Sierra Leone  fuelled by a desire to capture water resources to irrigate farmlands for large-scale agriculture and growing bio-fuel crops also lends credence to this argument, as it leaves subsistence farmers displaced, vulnerable and at the expense of these large corporations.

Most importantly, the persistence of poverty and underdevelopment in these developing countries as evidenced by lack of employment opportunities, increase in violent conflict over access to food, water and other economic opportunities and the prevalence of diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis are aggravated by a growing unmanaged population. The population density of large cities such as Lagos, Jakarta and Mumbai ensures that such diseases are easily spread.

Most of the solutions to arrest this population crisis proposed by the development experts revolve around family planning policies to be put in place by the government since the people in these countries are regarded as too poor and incapable of making such choices themselves. As Jeffrey Sachs argues, family planning would be available and the families would be expected to VOLUNTARILY choose to have fewer children which would be better for them and for their children as they would have better nutrition, better healthcare and greater opportunities of living better lives for “when they are very very poor, they need help to be able to have those choices”.

However, one cannot help wondering whether this issue is really being examined from the most pragmatic perspective. While indeed growing population is putting a strain on global resources, evidence shows that the rising population in developing countries has little bearing on the consumption of global resources. The UN Human Development Report (HDR) shows that 54% of global income goes to the richest 10% of the world’s population, while 2.5 billion people living on less than $2 a day or 40% of the world’s population receive only 5% of global income. The Economist reported in January 2011 that “the richest 1% of adults control 43% of the world’s assets; the wealthiest 10% have 83% of global assets while the bottom 50% have only 2%”. In fact according to The Guardian UK of the 23rd October 2011, one Briton has the carbon footprint of about 22 Africans. Even in terms of carbon emissions and pollution, it is mostly perpetrated by industries, firms and corporations of developed countries. As George Monbiot, an author and activist notes, in the face of western over-consumption criticising expanding population in developing countries means “blaming the victims”

Furthermore, overcrowding and population density typically abound in major cities in both the developed and the developing world. John Bongaarts of the New York-based Population Council notes that ”most of that growth will be in Africa’s cities, and in those cities it will almost all be in slums where living conditions are horrible”. Thus, many small towns and rural areas in developing countries have large swathes of land which are sparsely populated and could accommodate millions of people easily. It is noteworthy that other factors such as rampant rural-urban migration account for the swelling population of many developing-country cities.  Conversely many developed economies in Europe, North America and even parts of East Asia are faced with shrinking birth rates and rapidly ageing populations notably Japan, Italy and Russia where birth rates are lower than replacement rates of less than 2.1 children per woman. In order to reverse this ageing population, countries like Russia have initiated a policy known as “mother capital” where women are paid about $10,000 to have more than one child albeit with little success. Thus, there seems to be plenty of space to fit everyone and more as it has even been argued that the entire 7 billion people of the earth could fit shoulder-to-shoulder in the city of Los Angeles, California.

It is also worth considering that if global population is putting a strain on global resources and threatening the delicate eco balance, should the most viable solution then, be embarking on projects of halting this growing population in developing countries through family planning? This is far from pragmatic, it is unsustainable, not to mention highly unfair for if as evidence shows, developing countries are not responsible for excessive over consumption of resources and the world still has space to accommodate so many more people, then why should people’s reproductive rights be interfered with? What assurances are there that some governments would not embark on over-zealous coercive depopulation measures such as India’s mass sterilisation campaign in the 1970s where thousands of men and women were forced to undergo vasectomy and tubal ligation respectively. Whole villages were reported to have been rounded up for sterilisation with a ruthless efficiency and it persists to this day, though to a much lesser extent.

The following pictures by professional freelance photographer and author Nick Rain, shot in December 2003, reveals the sordid story of the mass sterilization camps in India:

 In a remote part of India on the border with Nepal a local clinic managed to convince the local women to come enmasse to undergo sterilization to combat poverty. The women however were not aware how the crude operation would be carried out. The operation took place inside the dirty clinic with hundreds of women waiting like cattle to be operated on.Copyright: Nick Rain.

One by one the women were put on the operating table, the instrument used looked like a twelve inch metal tube with a sharp edge at one end. It was then forced into the womans stomach and the physician looked through the instrument and made what looked like a twist and a snip, a quick stich and a plaster and the women were dragged outside to recover on the grass. This operation is called Tubal Ligation. Copyright: Nick Rain.

In the face of deeply entrenched socio-cultural beliefs and values over reproductive rights in many developing countries, where children are regarded as a “blessing” from God and the inability to bear children easily leads to stigmatization, or in rural areas where children are still seen as a sign of wealth so that they can work on farms, it is quite unlikely that people can be reasonably convinced to drastically limit the number of children they bring into this world. Suspicion and allegations of covert Western support and prodding for coercive population control in developing countries does not help matters either given that wealthy countries like US from 1966 under President Lyndon Johnson, Japan, Sweden and UK have devoted large funds to reducing Third World birth rates. For example, in Peru, the government of former President Alberto Fujimori’s forced sterilization of hundreds of thousands of poor, rural Peruvians between 1995 and 2000 under a “public health” plan is reported to have been principally financed using funds from USAID, the Japanese Nippon Foundation, and later, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). In Nigeria there have been various controversies over alleged “covert” plans by global powers to sterilize women and control population.

With such facts, one could argue that the international community seems to be unrealistically putting undue emphasis on population and birth control in developing countries at the expense of more important issues such as providing greater opportunities for education and empowerment so that the poor and disadvantaged can have better opportunities in life, can be lifted out of poverty and contribute meaningfully to their communities’ development. Improving access to basic agriculture technologies for many people in the poorest countries whose livelihoods depend on subsistence farming is one way to reduce the threat of food scarcity. As research shows that women who finish at least secondary school are in a better position to make informed choices about their reproductive options and are more likely to plan for and have fewer kids that they can actually take care of, educating and empowering women should be the top priority. The growing youth population of many Sub Saharan countries such as Nigeria or Kenya where up to half the population is under 25 years old, regarded by experts as a “youth dividend” could fuel a productive surge if they are meaningfully engaged, trained, educated  and their potential utilized. It is very easy to envision how the potential of the teeming youth of Nigeria’s over 166 million people could be harnessed to revive the agriculture sector and to power desperately needed manufacturing and industrialization especially in the North.

Therefore, while world population especially in developing countries is growing at a rapid pace, a more realistic, pragmatic and sustainable approach needs to be taken by the development community in managing the situation by advocating for a balance in utilization and consumption of resources. Developing country governments in Sub Saharan Africa on their own part need to focus more on empowering their vibrant and dynamic people and orienting them towards more sustainable development.

P.S.

The video below is an episode of a show on Russia Today called Cross Talk, where current affairs are discussed. The debate in this episode centers around the population crisis debate.